Research Papers and Reports

Staying the course on net zero

This research paper explores how funds can enjoy the benefits and avoid the risks of net zero investing. We discuss the rapid increase in net zero commitments and investments, the increasing demands on investors to deliver on these commitments, headwinds they face in doing so, and the imperative for funds to stay the course and further lean into the opportunities provided by the net zero transition.

Just Transitions’ Meanings: A Systematic Review

This systematic review of the Just Transitions literature examines the centrality of justice theory as well as the implications of the relative ambiguity with which governance models and theory have been conceptualized. Situating justice and governance theory in the Just Transitions concept, they are used to describe the “why” and the “how” of Just Transitions, and how these relate to the “what”.

Health impacts associated with traffic emissions in Australia

An expert position statement scaling the potential health impacts in Australia from traffic pollution, prepared by Melbourne Climate Futures Academy, indicates that vehicle emissions may be causing more than 11,000 premature deaths per year.

The Land Gap Report

In Response to Climate Change, Governments are Relying on Land for Carbon Dioxide Removal. We calculated how much land is included in pledges: 1.2 billion hectares. That’s the size of the world’s food-producing base.

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world's populations to concurrent health threats.

From Corporate Governance to Ecological Regulation

This brief paper is concerned with the challenge of ‘ecological’ regulation – that is the challenge of ‘taming capitalism’ to ensure businesses operate within, and contribute to, flourishing eco social systems, rather than extracting from and exploiting them.

Review of literature on impacts of climate litigation

This report for the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) reviews the findings of academic and grey literature published over the period 2000-2021 on the impacts of climate change litigation.

Carbon removals from nature restoration are no substitute for steep emission reductions

Published in One Earth, this research found that nature restoration, the process of restoring degraded natural ecosystems, is crucial but any climate benefits are dwarfed by the scale of ongoing fossil fuel emissions. Lead author Dr Kate Dooley said nature restoration can marginally lower peak warming but should not be seen as a substitute for reducing fossil fuel emissions.

AGL & Mike Cannon-Brookes: A Case Study of investor leadership on climate change?

The recent AGL saga has highlighted the role of investors as a force for pushing the decarbonisation of companies. But questions remain as to whether this is approach is consistent with understandings of corporate purpose and existing legal frameworks, and the implications of this as a case study of ‘investor leadership’ in the climate space. This working paper explores these issues.

A taxonomy of models for investigating hydrogen energy systems

A taxonomy to classify hydrogen models is proposed based on a review of 29 studies. Nine hydrogen archetypes covering the entire range of studies are defined. Each archetype is characterized using the hydrogen taxonomy. Challenges for each archetype are discussed together with potential solutions.

The Future of Nationality in the Pacific

If the impacts of climate change drive people from their homes, what happens to their relationship with their home country? This groundbreaking report provides the first in-depth look at the legal risks of statelessness and nationality loss in the Pacific as climate change hits.

Election 2022: Climate and energy

As we approach the 2022 Australian federal election, many voters are wondering how to decipher our candidates’ climate policies. This briefing paper by Associate Professor Peter Christoff directly compares Australia’s major parties’, as well as key independent candidates’, climate positions and plans.

Building and Appliance Energy Efficiency Research: Opportunities for EU-Australian Collaboration

European Union (EU) and Australian institutional structures, past policy measures and present policy approaches related to building and appliance energy and climate response have much in common, and important differences. Both the similarities and differences provide fertile ground for increased future research collaboration. This paper reviews relevant past and represent policies in the EU and Australia within broad categories that were established after initial research.

Energy Affordability: Sharing Lessons from the EU and Australia’s Low Carbon Transitions

Energy affordability is a key concern for households in the European Union (EU) and Australia, as the transformation of the electricity sector unfolds. High prices can lead to energy poverty: when a household cannot afford the essential electricity services needed for a decent standard of living, such as heating. This report compares approaches in the EU and Australia. We analyse the cost drivers, regulatory frameworks and interventions to mitigate hardship and address energy poverty.

Cities for People and Nature E-Book

The Clean Air and Urban Landscapes (CAUL) Hub has been funded by Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program. The remit of the CAUL Hub has been to undertake ‘Research to support environmental quality in our urban areas’.

Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C

If all new and updated national climate change mitigation pledges stemming from the Paris Agreement are implemented in full and on time, then 21st-century warming could be limited to just below 2 degrees Celsius.

Climate Change and Australia’s Healthcare Systems Report

Medical Colleges from across Australia and New Zealand are calling on the Federal Government to commit to stronger 2030 targets and to urgently come up with a plan to protect Australians and the healthcare system from the impacts of climate change. The call comes as the Royal Australasian College of Physicians releases a report it commissioned, prepared by the Monash Sustainable Development Institute. The report, endorsed by 10 Medical Colleges, and co-authored by MCF Deputy Director, Prof Kathryn Bowen, paints a dire picture of the future of the Australian healthcare system under the unmitigated impacts of climate change.

New COP26 pledges bring projected warming to below 2°C for the first time in history

Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Zebedee Nicholls and Rebecca Burdon find that if all NDC and long-term pledges are fulfilled and adequately supported, the best-estimate peak warming this century is 1.9C. This is still far from halting warming around 1.5K, but substantially improved over recent projections.

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Researchers including Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen and Zebedee Nicholls find that updated pledges provide a stronger near-term foundation to deliver on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, reducing the probability of the worst temperature change and increasing the likelihood of well below 2°C.

Tack to the future

Dr Christiaan De Beukelaer explores the political economy of the re-uptake of wind propulsion for maritime cargo transport to shift this sector onto a decarbonization pathway. It focuses on how wind propulsion technologies aim to close the emissions gap between projected emissions and the target to reduce them.

Healthy waterways and ecologically sustainable cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

Cities across the northern dry region of China are exposed to multiple sustainability challenges. Researchers including Dr Giri Kattel, Prof Andrew Western and Prof Peter Scales examine the concept of ‘Healthy Waterways and Ecologically Sustainable Cities’ as an important pathway to tackle these problems.

Building Prosperous, Just and Resilient Zero-Carbon Regions

This report was prepared by John Wiseman and Linda Wollersheim with funding support from Melbourne Climate Futures and with feedback and advice from MCF Deputy Director, Prof Kathryn Bowen.

Potential for forest thinning to reduce risk and increase resilience to wildfire in Australian temperate Eucalyptus forests

Prof Rod Keenan, A/Prof Christopher Weston and Dr Luba Volkova found evidence from international studies that thinning combined with fuel reduction can reduce wildfire risks and impacts in dry forests compared with no treatment or thinning alone. But in Australia, studies so far demonstrate mixed outcomes.

Convergent evolution: Framework climate legislation in Australia

A/Prof Peter Christoff and Prof Robyn Eckersley examine why four subnational governments in Australia succeeded in enacting durable framework climate legislation based on a model that came to be widely regarded as ‘best-practice’. They call this ‘convergent evolution’ over the period 2007–2015.

Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña

La Niña is the most predictable climate driver of Australian springtime rainfall. Consistent with this, the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S1 made highly confident predictions of wetter-than-normal conditions for spring 2020. But this did not happen. Researchers including Dr Andrew King examine why.

Compound climate extremes driving recent sub-continental tree mortality in northern Australia have no precedent in recent centuries

Knowledge of the occurrence and ecological impacts of compound climate extremes beyond the past 50 years is limited. Researchers including Prof Patrick Baker place the 2015-16 mangrove dieback and 2020 inland native forest dieback events into a longer historical context using palaeo-climate records.

Climate resilience through sociocultural mobility

Here Dr Alexei Trundle draws on evidence of informal community resilience in six rural-to-urban migrant communities in Port Vila and Honiara. Findings demonstrate extensive and increasingly codified community structures, hybridising and adapting those found in rural, ‘home-island’, settings.

Climate Change Litigation: Global Perspectives

In Chapter 3 ‘Climate Change Litigation in Australia: Law and Practice in the Sunburnt Country’, Dr Laura Schuijers and Prof Margaret Young look at the role of litigation in the Australian response to climate change, examining the potential and limitations of climate-related litigation in Australia.

Overdiagnosis is increasing the carbon footprint of healthcare

Researchers including A/Prof Forbes McGain argue that tackling overdiagnosis is taking on a new urgency in the context of a climate emergency. While novel efforts to curb overdiagnosis are underway, they have had limited uptake so far. Carbon emissions for zero gain in health outcomes must be addressed.

Cities in the Anthropocene - New Ecology and Urban Politics

Based on Dr Ihnji Jon’s visits and interviews in Darwin (Australia), Tulsa (Oklahoma), Cleveland (Ohio), and Cape Town (South Africa), this book tells the story of how cities can lead a transformative pro-environment politics. Cities can activate politics appreciating the role of nature in urban life.

Estimating the cooling potential of irrigating green spaces in 100 global cities with arid, temperate or continental climates

Researchers Pui Kwan Cheung, A/Prof Stephen Livesley, and Dr Kerry Nice determined the relationship between climate and irrigation cooling linear regression. Estimating the cooling potentials of irrigating urban green space in 100 cities, they found that most cities will receive a cooling benefit.

Why Melbourne’s Worst Storms Come in Lines

Linear precipitation systems contribute to rainfall over Melbourne and the surrounds, potentially leading to significant rainfall and flash flooding. Researchers, including Dr Stacey Hitchcock and Prof Todd Lane analysed these systems to understand rainfall extremes and how they may change in the future.

Identifying oceanographic conditions conducive to coastal impacts on temperate open coastal beaches

As sea levels continue to rise, erosion and flooding at hotspots will likely worsen and informed decisions will need to be made about coastal management. Researchers, including Prof David Kennedy and Ms Chloe Leach, propose a model for isolating oceanic conditions conducive to coastal impact along open coasts.

The urgent need for integrated social, economic and environmental action in the livestock sector

In this paper, researchers, including Dr Brendan Cullen and Prof Richard Eckard, examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions; explore social, economic and environmental co-benefits and trade-offs associated with mitigation interventions; and critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions.

Being a Parent after a Disaster

Dr Lauren Kosta, Prof Louise Harms, Prof Lisa Gibbs and A/Prof David Rose explore parental experiences over the nearly seven years that followed catastrophic Australian bushfires in 2009. It highlights the parental role on trauma experiences, the range of losses and the extended experience of disaster recovery.

Equilibrium Modelling for Environmental Science

Mr Matthew Cantele, Dr Payal Bal, Prof Tom Kompas and Prof Brendan Wintle systematically extract data from 10 years of published equilibrium models (Ems) with a focus on how these models have been extended beyond their economic origins to encompass environmentally relevant sectors of interest.

Differing regeneration patterns after catastrophic fire and clearfelling

Researchers including Dr Raphael Trouve and Prof Patrick Baker took advantage of a catastrophic fire event to compare patterns of regeneration for a dominant tree species after a high-intensity natural disturbance and after clearfelling, focused on the mountain ash forests of burned in the 2009 Black Saturday fire.

Determining the likelihood of asset destruction during wildfires

The destruction of houses is a common impact of wildfires. Fire simulations are often used to understand patterns of landscape fire risk. Dr Thomas Duff and Prof Trent Penman use simulations of historic fires to develop a house destruction algorithm.

A framework for understanding the key drivers of cities’ climate actions in city networks

Climate actions in city networks are growing strategies for urban climate governance. Sombol Mokles and Dr Kathryn Davidson adopt an interdisciplinary approach to identify the key drivers of climate actions in city networks.

Decreases in relative humidity across Australia

Dr Murray Peel, Dr Conrad Wasko and Eleanor Denson investigate how absolute and relative humidity across Australia have changed over 1955–2020. How relative humidity is changing is important for our understanding of future changes in precipitation and evaporation.

Diagnosing delivery capabilities on a large international nature-based solutions project

A new paper from researchers, including Dr Georgia Garrard, looks at what is holding back greening in our cities. The greatest barriers were understaffing, a lack of intra-organisational processes, and risk-averse organisational cultures. These barriers can be overcome.

Taking globally consistent health impact projections to the next level

This Viewpoint from researchers, including MCF Deputy Director Kathryn Bowen, discusses and exemplifies a bottom-up initiative which aims to generate new research evidence on the future impacts of climate change on human health in a more coordinated and consistent way.

Final report: ‘Climate Change in a Land of Extremes’

See the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub’s final report. Per Prof David Karoly, the Hub “delivered critical knowledge in the field of climate change projections, improved understanding of coastal hazards and extreme events, and refined Australia’s climate modelling capability”.

Reflections on a decade of change in international environmental law

In this article, Prof Lavanya Rajamani and MCF Director Jackie Peel examine the profound ways in which international environmental law has evolved over the last decade, looking at emerging trends, asking whether it is still “fit for purpose” to respond to current and future challenges.

Physical and climate change-related risk identification in valuation practice: an Australian perspective

Georgia Warren-Myers and Lucy Cradduck investigate Australian property valuers’ identification and consideration of physical risks to properties. While valuers easily identified physical risks, there is a lack of understanding of and engagement with climate change risks.

Stressors and Supports in Post-disaster Recovery: Experiences After the Black Saturday Bushfires

Researchers report survey responses from the Beyond Bushfires study finding that the four most useful supports were family, friends, rebuilding resources, and their community.

Researchers construct oldest daily climate dataset for Perth

CLEX researchers have constructed the oldest daily historical climate dataset for Perth in south-western Australia to provide an extended record for analysing pre‐industrial climate variability and extremes for the region.

The severity and extent of the Australia 2019-20 Eucalyptus forest fires are not the legacy of forest management

A team of researchers find that the scale and severity of the 2019-20 bushfires is explainable by extrinsic factors (severe drought, strong winds, uninterrupted fire weather), not forest management.

Molehills into mountains - Transitional pressures from household PV-battery adoption under flat retail and feed-in tarrifs

Researchers simulate household PV battery investments over a 20-year period. They identify transitional tipping points that may challenge future electricity system management, market participation and energy policies.

Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution

There has been increasing interest in the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on extreme weather/climate events. This paper explores pathways and pitfalls in attribution methodology.

Strategic Planning for Melbourne's Green Wedges

This paper highlights some critical trade-offs between competing land uses in the Green Wedges, particularly where areas with high biodiversity values are involved.

Clean Air and Urban Landscapes (CAUL) Hub

The CAUL Hub has published four impact stories: Cities are Indigenous places, Urban biodiversity, Urban greening and Air quality, and a toolkit guiding researchers in supporting Indigenous-led research and co-design.

Australian Guidelines for the Implementation of Nature-based methods for reducing risk from coastal hazards

The National Centre for Coasts and Climate, supported through the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, have issued Australian guidelines for nature-based methods to reduce risk from coastal hazards.

International roundtable on achieving positive social and economic outcomes in the energy transition

Co-hosted by The Next Economy and Melbourne Climate Futures, the International Roundtable on Achieving Positive Social and Economic Outcomes in the Energy Transition brought together over 40 Australian, German and Polish leading thinkers who are deeply engaged in the question of how we manage change in the energy sector.