Agent-based model of how the NDIS impacts employment and mental health

The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is Australia’s largest social policy reform since Medicare. While the NDIS is a disability service, it is designed to work with health and social services to help inclusion for people with disability.

However, its roll-out has impacted other services used by Australians with disability. Mental health services have been displaced by the NDIS, raising questions about how people with mental illness access these services. The NDIS has also created confusion as to which services are responsible for outcomes among NDIS participants, such as employment outcomes.

Currently, the government is making multi-billion-dollar decisions affecting over 600,000 people with disability without sufficient evidence.

Our project aims to create computer simulations to predict the impact of government policy changes on the NDIS and other services, and how these changes will affect Australians with disability. We will use data from previous studies, systematic literature reviews, and expert input from government, people with disability, and service providers to build a computer simulation of the NDIS population and their access to mainstream services.

The research focuses on two key areas. First, we'll examine how NDIS funding for people with severe mental illness affects their use of other mental health supports, such as Medicare-funded services. Second, we'll investigate how the NDIS contributes to the government's goal of creating sustainable, inclusive jobs.

MDAP's expertise will be crucial in developing the agent-based model and creating flexible policy modules. Their skills in programming, modelling, and simulation will complement the subject matter expertise of the investigators, ensuring the model is extendable for future research.

The project outcomes will provide policymakers with transparent simulations of how their choices impact Australians with disability. We will share our findings with an expert panel, fostering open discussions about the interactions between the NDIS and mainstream policy systems. This research will highlight both the positive impacts of policy changes for NDIS participants and potential unintended consequences, ultimately informing evidence-based decision-making in this critical area of social policy.