Dynamic wildfire risk modelling and visualisation

We have entered the Pyrocene: an age of extreme wildfires marked by a growing toll on people, property and the environment, and an expansion of fire into areas not traditionally considered fire- prone. As devastating as recent fire seasons have been, they will be a prelude to something much bigger if we are unable to curb our greenhouse gas emissions and re-think our approach to fire.

Given these stakes, a shared understanding of fire is critical. We need to understand the links between fire, climate, the environment and people. And we need to communicate this knowledge with a wide range of stakeholders.

The age of big data presents exciting new opportunities to tackle the challenge of wildfire. It also creates pressures and obligations for time-poor policy and decision makers. There is a need for platforms which curate wildfire-relevant data and connect it to end users’ decision-making realities.

In this project we will develop a dynamic wildfire risk modelling and visualisation platform. We will leverage a growing array of local, national and global fire-related datasets to build a much better understanding of risk – not just among scientists but also fire managers and the general public.

We will leverage existing engagements with MDAP and Melbourne Centre for Data Science to create an innovative and transformational platform, capable of looking back and forward, and enabling a range of important research in wildfire and risk communication.

This platform will provide data for multiple research questions in two key domains:

• Wildfire risk modelling – What is the current risk? How well do existing models do? Can we build an end to end system for developing, predicting, evaluating and refining models of fire activity?
• Wildfire risk communication – For example, how does access to real time information about the drivers of fire activity influence public understanding of fire? What is the best format to present information to support fire agency intelligence gathering? What is the role, if any, for public predictions of fire activity? Can a platform like this support capacity building for science journalists?