Climate Talks E1: What is COP26?
COP26 will not only be important – it will be decisive. As U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said, “[COP26] is the last best chance the world has to come together in order to do the things we need to do to avoid the worst consequences of the climate crisis.”
Climate Talks is a new podcast produced by Melbourne Centre for Cities and Melbourne Climate Futures to deliver all the information you need in the lead up to the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference – or ‘COP26’ – taking place in Glasgow in November.
In this first episode, hosts Jackie Peel and Cathy Oke are joined by Robyn Eckersley and Lisa Cliff to unpack COP26 - the purpose, why it is important, which non-state actors are mobilising around COP26, and the role non-state actors play in climate future.
- Transcript
Greta Thunberg: How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you're doing enough when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.
US President Joe Biden: In my view, we've already waited too long to deal with this climate crisis. We can't wait any longer.
Alok Sharma: And if we do not act now, the science tells us these effects will become more frequent and more brutal.
David Attenborough: I do believe that if we act fast enough, we can reach a new stable state. In November this year at COP26 in Glasgow, we have what may be our last opportunity to make this step change.
Jackie: You're listening to Climate Talks, the podcast following the journey to Cop 26 produced by Melbourne Climate Futures and the Melbourne Centre for Cities at the University of Melbourne. I'm your host Professor Jackie Peel. I'm the director of Melbourne Climate Futures. I'm joined by my co host, Dr Cathy Oke Enterprise, Senior Fellow in Informed Cities. I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which this podcast was produced for us here at the University of Melbourne. We pay our respects to the Wurundjeri people of the Kulin nation. We invite our listeners to take a moment to reflect and acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which you live.
Cathy: Hi listeners. It's Cathy. Today, Jackie and I will be joined by Robyn Eckersley, Professor of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne, and Lisa Cliff, Program Manager of the Climate Action Network Australia, or CANA, and organiser of the Better Futures Forum. We're going to discuss COP 26. What's being decided? What the science tells us - a whole lot of things. But first, Jackie, what is COP?
Jackie: Well, COP in this case stands for Conference of the Parties. But the question is conference of the parties to what, and the answer to that is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. So in 2021 the Conference of the Parties or COP to this UN Climate Convention is going to be taking place from the first to the 12th of November, and it's being hosted by the United Kingdom in the city of Glasgow. These COPs have been taking place annually since the mid-1990s, and for each of these COPs, almost every country from around the world comes together to discuss international climate issues. This year is going to be the 26th of these global climate summits. Hence COP 26. So what we're expecting to see in November is world leaders, civil society, business, concerned citizens or convening on Glasgow. Whether that's going to be an in person or virtually, we'll wait to see. But they're all going to be trying to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change and the overall UN Climate Convention. It's being seen as the world's last best chance to combat dangerous climate change.
Cathy: Quite a big ask, really. But Jackie you mentioned Paris, Paris agreement. What does this mean?
Jackie: Well, this is a question right up my alley, Cathy, because I'm an international climate lawyer, so very skilled in unpacking acronyms. So, the Paris agreement, which you've probably heard about a lot in the news, is an international treaty. It was concluded to supplement the rules that exist under the United Nations Climate Convention, and it was agreed at COP 21 in 2015. What was so unusual about the Paris agreement was that we saw every country coming together to pledge that they'd work to limit global warming to well below two degrees centigrade, and also aimed to keep temperature rises below 1.5 degrees Celsius. And that's really critical for some of our sensitive ecosystems here in Australia, like the Great Barrier Reef and also obviously really critical for many countries around the world, including small island states that are threatened by sea level rise. So in the Paris agreement, countries also pledged that they're going to adapt to the impacts of climate change and make sure that they're making adequate finance available to achieve those aims. Another key aspect of the Paris Agreement that you'll probably hear us talk about a lot in this podcast is its requirement for countries that are parties to put forward national plans every five years that set out how much they're going to reduce emissions by as well as their actions on adaptation and finance. We call these plans nationally determined contributions or NDCs So that's another acronym, and the first of these NDC cycles commenced in 2020. The idea is that each successive NDC plan that a country produces is a progression on the one that it had before and reflects its highest possible ambition towards global climate goals.
Cathy: Back to COP 26 these are really important within this Conference of Parties that's been referred to as the most important climate conference since the conclusion of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Much remains to be decided as to how the world will actually achieve the goals of the agreement, and many have been left very disappointed by the lack of progress and urgency at the previous climate talks. Moreover, I think, as you've alluded to, you know, current projections indicate that the world is falling well short of what is necessary to limit warming to two degrees centigrade, and much less to 1.5. And closer to home, Australia continues to lag behind the rest of the world. And even if we do adopt a net zero goal by 2050 for Australia, if Scott Morrison convinces the Nationals to to get on board, you know it's really not really a cause of celebration because you know Australia's 2030 target a 26 to 28% reduction below the 2005 emissions levels is woefully out of step, with the 50% reduction needed to keep warming well below two degrees and much less the 74% reduction target for a 1.5 degrees trajectory. So it's the NDCs that you talked about. It's not just about the 2050 but it's actually the steps in between to get there. And that's where the really heavy lifting is needed and what all of us are looking to our national governments to step up at the conference in November.
Jackie: Yeah, I couldn't agree more. Kathy and I think everybody will be watching very closely to see what the Australian Government is going to do at the meeting. So that's kind of our coverage of the basics. Can you tell us a bit more, though Cathy, about the latest news around COP 26, this 26th climate summit that we're going to be seeing in November in Glasgow?
Cathy: It's an ever-moving feast, but the acceleration of ambition, sense of urgency - these are certainly the characteristics of the conversations in the last few months and will be more so in the lead up to COP 26 in November. Countries representing about 70% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions have adopted long-term net-zero targets, while many others have adopted ambitious interim 2030 emissions reduction targets. And the UK as the president of COP 26 has led the push, enshrining targets to reduce emissions by 68% by 2030 and 78% by 2035 based on 1990 levels. Meanwhile, the European Union recently passed a landmark European climate law committing the whole block two cuts of at least 55% by 2030, reaching climate neutrality by 2050 and negative emissions thereafter, and outside of Europe. After announcing the U. S returned to the Paris agreement, President Biden pledged that the US would reduce its emissions by 50 to 52% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, is aiming to peak Co2 emissions before 2030 and become climate neutral by 2060.
Jackie: So that all sounds really promising and I like to be glass half full in the climate space, but it's also worth noting, I think, that there are still some pretty significant headwinds on the horizon. We saw the Biden Leaders Climate summit in April this year a lot of optimism and momentum generated there, but it has been tempered somewhat at the more recent climate dialogues. For example, we all saw everybody from the G7 gathered in Cornwall and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson there was trying to get agreement for greater climate ambition but failed to secure a G7 deal on climate finance, which is so critical for developing countries and is really needed to bridge the current shortfall in the 100 billion by 2020 target that countries have set for themselves on finance. There are some milestones coming up where we might expect to see more progress. Keep your eye out for these, in particular the UN General Assembly meeting in September. And then there will be a pre-COP series of discussions in Milan from 30th of September to two October and then the G20 summit that's going to be held in Rome in October.
Cathy: So there's less than three months to go til COP26 there's all of those meetings and it's critical that through them momentum continues to grow and COP2 in Glasgow in November, it really needs to be decisive on all of those points.
Jackie: That concludes our 'Latest in COP' for today. So now we're going to turn to our guest speakers. I'll first be speaking with Professor Robyn Eckersley, who's in the social and political science at school at the University of Melbourne. Cathy is going to follow in her conversation with Lisa Cliff, who is the programme manager of Climate Action Network Australia and organiser of The Better Futures Forum. So welcome, Robyn. Nice to see you. Thanks for joining us today.
Robyn: Thanks for having me, Jackie.
Jackie: So, Robyn, we've been talking a little bit about COP26 obviously COP26 stands for Conference of the Parties number 26 under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change. We've already had 25 of these things before. Why is COP26 so important? Why is it going to be significant, or why are we hoping it might be?
Robyn: COP26 is important, Jackie, Because it's a critical year in a critical decade. When the parties negotiated the Paris Agreement in 2015, they agreed to enhance their nationally determined contributions, we'll just call them pledges which include their targets, every five years, so they were supposed to do that last year, but it was derailed a bit by the pandemic. So this December in Glasgow is when we'll see the full spread of enhanced pledges from all the parties. So it's really important to see what they all add up to, whether the mitigation ambition is sufficient. So we could say that COP26 is an important show and tell moment. There will also be other things going on there, but I think the most important thing is to see how much of a mitigation gap we still have, because we need to halve global emissions by 2030 if we're to have a fighting chance of holding global heating to no more than 1.5 degrees, and that's going to have to be heroic. So that's the main crucial thing about this COP. But for that to happen, the other big thing is for rich countries to stump up and provide climate finance to poor countries. The parties agreed back in 2009 to mobilise around $100 billion per annum by 2020 and they've fallen short of that. The G7 meeting in Cornwell didn't really round up enough money. And so this is going to be really crucial because that will unlock mitigation in the developing world. So these are the really big-ticket items on the table at Glasgow.
Jackie: So what we'd really hope is some good show and tell and some money being stumped up Are these the main issues that are being decided at COP26? Is that what we'd like to see in the outcome?
Robyn: Well, clearly there what I call the big-ticket items. But there is a very busy agenda as well, and the parties have been meeting via Zoom all year. But the problem is they've refused to negotiate text by that method. They want to do it in person, so they're way behind what they would normally be in a normal COP year. But on the table, I can't have all the issues. I just pick a couple. One is kick-starting the process for the first global stocktake. Under the Paris agreement, the parties have to organ is that by 2023. The IPCC's next assessment report should be ready, so that will help guide us. So they have to set up that process because then parties have to start developing pledges for 2035, informed by this global stocktake. So the procedures for that and what the parties need to do have to be worked out. That's one big issue. They also have to start discussions on a new climate finance goal for 2025, but they haven't even met the 2021 so that's going to be interesting. One of the big hangovers from the negotiations back in 2015 were carbon markets. These are just international voluntary trading schemes between parties or voluntary offset systems, and they haven't been fully finalised. There's been a few parties, including Australia, pushing hard to be able to account surplus credits from the Kyoto period. They're called Carry Over Credits. Recently, the Morrison government said they probably won't need to rely on them to reach their 2030 target, but they've fought mightily to have that possibility. So there's a lot of countries want to close that loophole because the point is to raise ambition, not give yourself a free ride, so that's going to be a controversial issue. There's lots of talks on transparency and loss and damage and even the periodic review of the long term goal.
Robyn: So there's that and many more things on the table.
Jackie: So that's a really big agenda for countries to achieve. And your expertise, Robyn, lies in political science. So, looking ahead at that big agenda, all those big-ticket items that need to be negotiated, what do you see as being some of the sorts of hurdles for countries, some of the political barriers that they might need to overcome? What things do we need to go right for all of these things to be delivered on?
Robyn: Well, this all gets back to national politics. You know the saying that all politics is local - in this instance, all politics is national - but it can also be local as well, because one of the reasons Australia's been in the bottom red zone of the Climate Change performance Index ever since Paris and many times before is because of the way our electorates are organised in this country. And those that happened to overlap big coal communities that may be critical electorates are really the tail wagging the dog of our national politics. It's a bit like that in the US, where very small, populous countries like Wyoming or others still have the same vote in the Senate, and a lot of Democrats Senators from coal country still vote as if fossil fuels have a future. So these are the sorts of issues we have to sort out locally. And there's one obvious solution to that, and that's careful planning, foresight and just transition so no one is left behind, because everyone wants to know. Well, who are the sacrificial lambs? We need massive change. We need another green industrial revolution, and that change is going to cause heartache. We have to look after all those that are going to suffer that heartbreak and the loss of income and dislocation. If we don't do that, it will never happen politically. But it's a no brainer. But for some reason, many politicians at the national level in our country pretend there's no climate problem, pretend we don't have a civilisational challenge and pretend that we can tackle climate change while absolutely promoting fossil fuels and subsidising them.
Robyn: Which is completely perverse. To put it mildly.
Jackie: To put it mildly indeed. Thanks, Robyn. I think it's a great reminder that even though we're talking about these issues going on at the global level - a big international conference - it has really important implications for our local communities, our national government, and ensuring justice for different groups in our society. So thanks very much for joining us for the podcast today, Robyn.
Robyn: You're most welcome. Jackie.
Cathy: Thank you so much, Robyn. Thank you, Jackie, for that conversation. And it was a good segue, actually, to talk about other stakeholders who are mobilising and involved in these climate conferences and in particular, COP26. So we're really thrilled to have Lisa Cliff joins us from CANA, Climate Action Network Australia, and in particular, to talk about the Better futures forum that is happening. So welcome to our first climate talks Podcast Lisa.
Lisa: Thanks so much. Cathy. It's great to be here.
Cathy: As you've heard, we've been talking about the role of national governments in the climate talks in COP26. What about other stakeholders often referred to as non-state actors? Who are these non-state actors? And what are they doing to mobilise around COP26.
Lisa: Yeah thanks, Cathy. So it is a bit of a technical term. Non-state actors. But under the Paris Agreement, non-state actors is used to refer to all of the sub-national governments. So the cities, the local government mayors, uh, and counsellors as well as the business leaders and other community leaders. So, uh, those investors, superannuation companies and the big corporates, multinational and international corporates like Ikea and Wesfarmers and others that we are seeing make large climate commitments that are really, uh, reassuring. And then also there's the shipping industry, the airlines, and others that have a big role to play if we are to transition the global economy to that zero-emissions future. So, yeah, it's great that there is a formal role that they can play in these global climate negotiations.
Cathy: Absolutely, and you certainly touched on some of the ways that they're mobilising. And from your perspective, why do you think these non-state actors are seeing it's really critical to engage in these climate negotiations?
Lisa: Yeah, so particularly in Australia, we are seeing all the state and territory governments have made a more ambitious commitment than our federal decision-makers in terms of committing to zero emissions before 2050 as well as committing to transition to 100% renewable energy by many of the states and territories as well as the business community. And we're seeing a lot of the industry bodies see the writing on the wall and know that if they don't put the measures in place today to assist the businesses and the players across the economy that they represent, if they don't put the measures in place today to help them in getting to what the global economy is moving towards, then they will be left behind. So really, it's about looking where the markets are going and seeing what are the opportunities in Australia to really get ahead of this challenge and create those sustainable jobs and those zero-emissions industries that that zero-emissions future is calling for. So Australian industries have a role to play in the future.
Cathy: So tell us a bit about this better futures forum.
Lisa: Yeah definitely, so Better Futures Australia is an initiative that's modelled off We are still in from the US, which was something in response to President Trump threatening to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement. So in Australia, obviously we're still part of the Paris Agreement But what we're hearing from our elected federal representatives is a lot of untruths, really about what we are doing to deliver on our commitments under that global climate agreement. So we're seeing inadequate targets to be on track to achieve zero emissions before 2050 which is what we know the science shows us is needed, as Robyn was speaking to, if we are to do our fair share to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees to what is considered the safe levels, where you know we have a safe climate, that humankind has evolved to survive within. So really, the Better Futures Forum is a moment to launch the alliance of non-state actors, those business and community leaders and sub-national governments, we've got a lot of mayors, and the Minister of Energy, Matt Keane from New South Wales, is going to provide an opening to really demonstrate the level of ambition across Australia. All corners of society and the economy are expecting our federal representatives in Glasgow to demonstrate that we are ready as a country to do our fair share. So there's there's really just an opportunity here to show that our business leaders, our sub national governments, our community leaders, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, are looking for certainty that we as a country will have a safe climate and a secure place in that zero emissions economy.
Cathy: I mean, it's really ambitious, but I think the optimism of a forum like this is showing that actually, it's not just the role of the national government. We all have a role to play. And as you've mentioned, all of these sectors have already committed to doing so much that that is why our nationally determined commitments that all of the countries are committing to under the Paris agreement, that everyone playing their part means we can actually be a lot more ambitious. So hopefully that's what the forum is showcasing.
Lisa: Yeah, definitely. And really, it is. It is showing that the shift to that zero carbon world is inevitable and that, you know, if we take the steps now today that a lot of the business community and the state and territory governments, the city mayors, they're already taking these steps, but if we have that national policy, the national commitment to provide that certainty, there's so many opportunities to get to a place where Australia can be a leader and, yeah, definitely the higher education sector and the work that Melbourne Climate Futures is doing is really critically important to that, too.
Cathy: So, Jackie, what did you make of our guest conversations from your point of view?
Jackie: Cathy, I was really struck by how the global relates to the local and the local to the global. I mean, with COP26 we're talking about these big international issues, global convening countries coming together, whole lot of issues on the agenda, as Robyn pointed out. But at the same time, there's a really strong connection to local politics, to local action, to what a range of different actors are able to bring to the table to contribute to this action. So I think it's just really important to recognise that even though these conversations are going on at a level that seems quite remote, they relate to lots of things that are in everybody's backyard at the moment. And everybody has a role to play.
Cathy: Yeah, absolutely. I think it's, I mean, it's so complex and serious. But what I took is that there is really you know, they're really is still hope and optimism, which is what we need, but that we can still achieve the change that is needed because there are so many people and so many organisations working together and, you know with a real focus on that just transition, bringing everyone along and not leaving people behind and that it really is still possible. There is a deadline, but it is still possible.
Jackie: Let's hope that what we see is acceleration towards a positive climate future for everyone.
Jackie: So thank you to our guests, Robyn Eckersley and Lisa Cliff, for joining us today and to our listeners for tuning in. I'm your host, Jackie Peel from Melbourne Climate Futures.
Cathy: And I'm Cathy Oke from the Melbourne Centre for Cities. You've been listening to Climate Talks produced by Ariana Dickey, Rebekkah Markey-Towler and Greta Robenstone, brought to you by Melbourne Climate Futures and the Melbourne Centre for Cities at the University of Melbourne.
And you can find out more information about this episode and our guests as well as information about Melbourne Climate Futures and the Melbourne Centre for Cities in the show notes. To stay up to date on the latest episodes subscribe to Climate Talks. And you can also follow us on Twitter at @networkedcities, all one word, or #unimelbclimatefutures. Thanks.
Links and references
Robyn Eckersley, Professor of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne
Lisa Cliff, Program Manager of Climate Action Network Australia and organiser of the Better Futures Forum
Credits
Co-hosted by Cathy Oke and Jackie Peel
Produced by Ariana Dickey, Greta Robenstone, and Bek Markey-Towler
Climate Talks is produced by Melbourne Climate Futures and Melbourne Centre for Cities at the University of Melbourne. Our theme music is by Music for a Warming World.
Climate Talks acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the lands on which this podcast was produced, the Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung People of the Kulin Nation, and pays respect to Elders past and present.