Forecasting risks to savanna ecosystems in northern Australia under global change

Sustainable land management requires new tools for decision-making in the face of rapid and uncertain global changes. This project develops spatial tools for robust decisions on land management across large areas that integrate risk and uncertainty in climate and economic drivers – for example fire management, cattle grazing and pasture improvement. This ensures that landscapes can continue to support livelihoods, biodiversity, and other vital ecosystem services.

Our focal region – northern Australia's savannas – supports immense biodiversity and an extensive cattle industry. Sustainable management of these savannas depends on understanding:

• How management actions impact biodiversity and cattle production under uncertain climate and economic futures
• How systems of financial incentives and regulation can be designed to drive more sustainable management decisions.

The essential elements of this project consist of an integrated systems model for northern Australia, along with a spatial optimisation for the allocation of financial incentives for land and biodiversity management. We will also develop, a web app to enable end users to explore and interrogate the results.

MDAP staff would contribute high-level programming skills and computing resources in developing the systems model, spatial optimisation, and web app. For example, machine learning, dynamic links among submodels and parallel processing.

The aim of the project is to inform climate-smart policy and planning in northern Australia. This approach will be transferrable to other landscapes and communities facing similarly uncertain futures, by providing tools to help people and ecosystems adapt and thrive in a changing climate.