University Advancement Office Alumni and Friends

The Labour Market Part One - What is Your Destiny?

Contents

Introduction

Whether you are a recent graduate or an experienced professional or manager, employed or self-employed, making decisions about your future direction can be quite daunting. While self-reflection can be of assistance, so can an investigation into relevant areas of the labour market. This includes finding out about employers' expectations or those of your clients, and developing an understanding of the industries and occupations of particular interest to enhance your value to others and improve your marketability and employability.

Even though the information is usually a bit dry and complex, it is an important part of career decision-making -especially in the current climate where the nature of work is rapidly evolving and becoming increasingly unpredictable.

The first part of this article contains some facts and general information about the current labour market. The second part of the article (in the next edition of GradNet) will look at employment forecasts and what responses people may engage in to progress their careers.

The current labour market

The labour market is dynamic and in constant change. On a broad level, it is affected by the state of the economy including globalisation, the freeing up of financial markets, an increase in cross border trade, the number of companies working internationally, mergers and takeovers as well as technological innovation and environmental events. On a more specific level, growth and decline of industries, organisational downsizing and restructuring, outsourcing, financial viability, cost effectiveness and competitiveness in the market can affect what happens in the workplace.

These impacts on the labour market affect the demand for particular types of workers, the knowledge and skills they require and the extent to which industries expand or contract their workforce. Employers develop strategies to enable them to make the best use of the workers at their disposal and to benefit from their investment, which in turn affects how well or otherwise individuals can find suitable/desirable employment.

Paradoxically, in modern economies many people are unemployed at the same time that there are unfilled vacancies due to a 'skills mismatch'. Most areas of high demand are for occupations with high skill levels. The impact of economic fluctuations, demographic changes (for example, an ageing population) and the introduction of new technology may lead to an oversupply or undersupply of certain workers. Shortages can also result from the exit of people from an industry for which they are trained, skill atrophy or language difficulties (www.seek.com.au, October, 2004).

Employers' requirements

In recent times, employers' requirements have included:

Patterns of work

New, emerging patterns of work reflect the prevailing conditions that workers may encounter. Having an expectation that 'a job is for life' is no longer the norm. In fact, greater job insecurity, varying work arrangements, times of unemployment and underemployment, a range of different jobs in different organisations, opportunities for self employment, project and consultancy work, an expectation of lifelong learning and the need for work/life balance are some of the possibilities (www.myfuture.edu.au, October, 2004).

Looking back - the general labour market

[cartoon: a person cleaning the floor]According to the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, in the 12 months to May 2004, the Australian labour market had grown by 2.4% after growth of 2.3% in the previous year. [cartoon of businessman]

Employment opportunities and growth varied across industries. The strongest numerical rises in employment occurred in Health and Community Services, Construction and Education, while the strongest rates of growth were in Mining, Health and Community Services and Construction.

The trend rate of unemployment was 5.6% in May 2004, significantly lower than in May 2003 (6.2%) and at its lowest level in more than two decades. Generally those in more highly skilled occupations were less likely to experience unemployment than those in less skilled occupations. This was partly due to the stronger numerical increases in employment growth for Professionals, Managers and Administrators and Tradespersons.

A report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicated that participation in the labour force for the year ending February 2003 was highest for people aged 20 to 24 years (90%) and lowest for people aged 55 to 69 years (48%). There were 1.7 million people who looked for work at some time during the year, over half of whom looked for between 1 and 12 weeks (53%), and a further 11% had looked for work for the whole of the year. An earlier report (1997) showed that 75% of employees had been with their current employer for one year or more. Of these, almost all (93%) had experienced some change in their work in the previous 12 months.

Other findings showed that full-time employees and younger employees were more likely to be promoted or transferred than part-time employees and older employees respectively, and people employed as managers and administrators had the highest rate of promotion although intermediate clerical, sales and service workers also had a high rate of promotion.

Looking back - the graduate labour market

[cartoon of a new employee]The most recent Graduate Destination Survey data published by the Graduate Careers Council of Australia (GCCA) reflects the destinations of Australian tertiary education students in 2003, four months after completing their studies in 2002. In comparison with the previous year, there was a slight decrease in of those in full-time work (80.1%, 81.3%), a slight increase of those in part-time work seeking full-time work (12.1%, 11.2%) and a small increase in those not working and seeking full-time work (7.8%, 7.5%).

[cartoon of a business girl]As graduates entering the labour market form a subset of the overall workforce, their employment trends generally tend to follow overall workforce patterns. For new graduates in 2003, employment prospects continued to level off after a period of improvement, which consolidated between 1999 and 2001. Looking back over the longer term, full-time graduate employment was recorded at 83.5% in 1982; it rose to a high of 91.3% in 1989 and then dropped to a low of 70.5% in 1992 before climbing to 83.6% in 2000.

Some differences are apparent, however, when graduate destinations are compared with non-graduates. For instance, graduates are more likely to be employed (and in full-time employment) and less likely to be unemployed (Education and Work Survey, ABS, 2003).

However, graduate opportunities may be restricted by employers when budgets are tight and succession planning is not high on the agenda. The extent to which employers are willing to invest in training and developing new staff (for management and specialist roles), especially for graduates from non-vocational disciplines, is another issue that affects employment potential (DETYA, 1999). Graduates can also fail to attract the attention of employers if their academic results do not meet expectations, if they have failed to obtain relevant work experience or cannot demonstrate involvement in activities that could assist their development.

Indeed, despite the call for better-educated workers and an increase in tertiary education places, research has shown that not all graduates can expect to find employment in career-based occupations (Marginson, 1993). Whilst there has been a shift in the occupational workforce towards professional occupations which have traditionally been the chief focus of graduate employment, not all graduates are benefiting from the change (Andrews and Wu, 1998). Even though approximately three-quarters of the current cohort of graduates are in professional occupations, because of the growth in graduate numbers exceeding the supply of traditional graduate occupations, there is increased competition between graduates from different fields of study for these positions. There is evidence that generalist graduates have been pushed from the better paying occupations by other graduates (from vocational disciplines) who have widened their employment destinations (Andrews and Wu, 1998), and have had to initially accept sub-professional employment (Birrell and Rapson, 1998). Increasing their share of employment in low level service sector occupations (often on a casual basis) over non degree holders (DETYA, 1999) has enabled them to maintain their comparatively low rates of unemployment (Andrews and Wu, 1998). [cartoon of a person running up a lightning bolt]

Looking forward

It is usually easier to track patterns of employment retrospectively than to forecast possible trends. But how will the current employment situation influence the future, what are the forecasts, and what impact could they have on you? What will you do to progress your career? Find out in the next edition of GradNet.

References

Andrews, L and Wu, T. (1998), The Labour Market Experience of Higher Education Graduates over the Last Decade, DETYA, Commonwealth of Australia

Australian Bureau of Statistics, (1997), 6254.0 Australia's employment experience, 1

Australian Bureau of Statistics, (2003), Education and Work Survey.

Birrell, B. and Rapson, V. (1998), Implications of widened access to higher education. People and Place, Centre for Population and Urban Research Monash University

Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, (July 2004) Australian Jobs Update

Department of Education Training and Youth Affairs, (1999), Higher Education Report for the 1999 to 2001 Triennium, Commonwealth of Australia.

Graduate Careers Council of Australia, (2004), 2003 Graduate Destination Survey

Marginson, S with assistance from O'Hanlon, S. (1993), Arts, Science, and Work, Commonwealth of Australia

myfuture.edu.au, the facts, (2004), Patterns of Work

seek.com.au, (2004), Jobs Database and Employment Advice, Where the Jobs Are, Brown, S


Toni Waugh, Employment Services Manager
Careers & Employment
© The University of Melbourne 2004

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