316-211 Forecasting in Economics and Business

316-205 Introductory Econometrics or 316-206 Quantitative Methods 2 or 325-210 Managerial Decision Analysis or 325-212 Priniciples of Market Research.

This subject is an introduction to single equation forecasting methods and their applications to business, finance, economics and marketing. Special emphasis will be given to core forecasting techniques with the widest applicability. Attention will be paid to modelling and forecasting trends and cycles with topics including forecasting regression models, leading indicators, exponential smoothing methods, ARIMA models, pooling forecast procedures and forecast evaluation. The subject is applications-orientated and will make use of the computer software Eviews.

• High level of development: problem solving; statistical reasoning; interpretation and analysis; critical thinking; synthesis of data and other information; evaluation of data and other information; use of computer software; accessing data and other information from a range of sources.

• Moderate level of development: oral communication; team work; application of theory to practice; receptiveness to alternative ideas.

• Some level of development: written communication; collaborative learning.

A 2-hour examination (70%) and class assignments totalling not more than 3000 words (30%).