Dr David Dickson 619-202 Theory of Statistics First semester Three 1-hour lectures and a one hour tutorial On completion of this subject, students should be able to:

• calculate probabilities for, and moments of, loss distributions both with and without simple reinsurance arrangements;
• construct risk models appropriate to short term insurance contracts and calculate the moment generating function and the moments for the risk models both with and without simple reinsurance arrangements;
• calculate and approximate the aggregate claims distribution for short term insurance contracts;
• explain the concept of ruin for a risk model, calculate the adjustment coefficient and derive Lundberg's inequality for a compound Poisson model. Describe the effect on the probability of ruin of changing parameter values and of simple reinsurance arrangements; and
• describe and apply the fundamental concepts of credibility theory.

Statistical distributions in insurance; inferences from insurance data; risk models, ruin theory; experience rating and credibility theory. A 3-hour end-of-semester examination (85%) and a one and a half hour examination during the semester (15 per cent). I D Currie, Loss Distributions, D C M Dickson and H R Waters, Risk Models, D C M Dickson & H R Waters, Ruin Theory, H R Waters, Credibility Theory