Mr Des Welch 619-202 Theory of Statistics Second semester Two one-and-a-half-hour lectures and a one-hour tutorial per week At the end of this subject, students should be able to:

• describe how to collect data in a form suitable for examining past experience;
• calculate the exposure to risk using census methods and exact exposure methods, and derive crude decrement rates for a single decrement model by age and duration;
• describe and apply the principle methods available for graduating experience rates, and the considerations to be taken into account in selecting a method;
• discuss the variation of mortality with regard to social, economic or regional factors and the use of standardised mortality ratios for describing such variations;
• describe the principle forms of heterogeneity within a population with regard to mortality and sickness and the ways in which selection can occur;
• discuss the need for risk classification and the use of different factors to classify risks; and
• demonstrate how to use a multiple state or a multiple decrement model to describe the evolution of a population subject to more than one decremental factor, both in discrete and continuous form and with or without independence between the factors.

The analysis of mortality and other decremental statistics including continuous and census exposed-to-risk formulae; select rates; the derivation and use of multiple decrement tables and sickness rates; techniques of graduation; construction of recent standard life tables. The course will also include some related demographic topics. A 3-hour end-of-semester examination (80%), a mid-semester test (10%), and one major assignment(10%). Benjamin and Pollard, Exposed-to-Risk and Graduation.